Ten reasons why a 'Greater Depression' for the 2020s is inevitable

-

Ominous and risky trends were around long before Covid-19, making an L-shaped depression very likely

After the 2007-09 financial crisis, the imbalances and risks pervading the global economy were exacerbated by policy mistakes. So, rather than address the structural problems that the financial collapse and ensuing recession revealed, governments mostly kicked the can down the road, creating major downside risks that made another crisis inevitable. And now that it has arrived, the risks are growing even more acute. Unfortunately, even if the Greater Recession leads to a lacklustre U-shaped recovery this year, an L-shaped “Greater Depression” will follow later in this decade, owing to 10 ominous and risky trends.

The first trend concerns deficits and their corollary risks: debts and defaults. The policy response to the Covid-19 crisis entails a massive increase in fiscal deficits – on the order of 10% of GDP or more – at a time when public debt levels in many countries were already high, if not unsustainable.

Continue reading...

from The Guardian https://ift.tt/3f1ZmOg

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Ply in the sky: the new materials to take us beyond concrete | Fiona Harvey

-
Concrete is everywhere, but it’s bad for the planet, generating large amounts of carbon dioxide. Creative alternatives are in the pipeline They call them plyscrapers: the sudden emergence of tall buildings constructed almost entirely from timber. Vancouver , Vienna and Brumunddal in Norway have all claimed recently to have the tallest wooden building in the world, and now Tokyo has its own designs on the informal title. Related: Share your photos of beautiful or ugly concrete Continue reading... from The Guardian https://ift.tt/2UeDOmU
Read more

Forgotten plays: No 5 – Owners (1972) by Caryl Churchill

-
The writer unleashed her gift for black comedy to excoriate British attitudes to property and possessions in this sprightly drama Caryl Churchill is rightly admired for many qualities : her formal inventiveness, her questing intelligence, her dystopian vision of everything from cloning to climate catastrophe. But she has one gift that is rarely discussed: her wild humour. It is there in the sudden eruption of a 10-foot bird into the family brouhaha in Blue Heart (1997) and in the backyard banter in the more recent Escaped Alone (2016). It is also vividly present in one of her earliest stage plays, Owners. Given that the piece had a brief run at the Royal Court Theatre Upstairs in 1972 and, as far as I know, only one revival, it is one of Churchill’s least-known works yet cries out to be rediscovered. On the surface, it sounds bleak. It is about the urge for ownership and shows Marion, a rampant property developer, eating up everything around her: she’s not only prepared to turf two...
Read more

The 20 best songs of 2020

-
Our writers considered hundreds of contenders – and here are their picks of the year. Listen to all 390 tracks they voted for on our playlist Delivered from a nightmare: why our No 1 song works so well We kick off our end of 2020 music coverage with Guardian critics’ favourite songs, with our album of the year countdown starting tomorrow. As ever, each critic votes for top 20 songs and albums, with points allocated for each placing, and those points tallied to make these lists. There were 390 songs voted for in all – we’ve put ( almost) all of them in a Spotify playlist . Please share your own favourite songs of the year in the comments below, and we’ll hopefully see you in a festival field in 2021 … Continue reading... from The Guardian https://ift.tt/3liPlhp
Read more